The US plans to soon provide artillery and air defense systems to Ukraine after the aid package cleared the House, signaling a positive gesture to Kiev as they face difficulties on the battlefield.

After months of debate, the US House of Representatives on April 20 voted to pass a nearly $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine with a vote of 311 in favor and 112 against.

$23 billion of the spending package will be used to replenish the US military’s stockpile, facilitating further transfers of military aid to Ukraine.

$14 billion will go towards the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, with the Pentagon purchasing new weaponry for Kiev from domestic defense contractors. Over $11 billion will be allocated to support current US military activities in the region, enhance the capabilities of the Ukrainian military, and promote intelligence cooperation between Kiev and Washington.

About $8 billion will be non-military assistance, such as aiding the Ukrainian government in covering basic operations, including paying salaries for civil servants and pensions.

The bill is expected to be voted on in the US Senate on April 23, before being sent to President Joe Biden to sign into law. This process is likely to proceed swiftly, encountering fewer obstacles than in the US House of Representatives.

Unnamed US defense officials stated last week that the Pentagon has prepared weapons crates and military equipment in readiness for immediate delivery to Ukraine once the aid package is approved. Some equipment has already been stored in European countries and could reach Ukraine within days.

Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Ryder stated on April 18 that the US has “a very robust logistics network, enabling rapid transportation of equipment.” “We fully understand the urgency of the situation and are prepared to act quickly,” he affirmed.

Other US military assistance is likely to reach Ukraine in the coming weeks.

Currently, specific components of the weapons aid package for Ukraine have not been disclosed. However, two crucial items that are certain to be expedited are artillery shells and air defense systems.

Ukraine is running short of NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells, one of the reasons why its military had to withdraw from Avdeevka, a strategic stronghold in Donetsk province, in mid-February.

Most recently, on April 21, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that its forces had seized control of Bogdanovka village in Donetsk, thereby increasing pressure on the Chasov Yar stronghold located three kilometers away. Capturing Chasov Yar would enable Russian forces to advance further towards the city of Kramatorsk, the last major urban area held by Ukraine in the Donbass region, and its surrounding areas.

In recent weeks, European countries have achieved some success in procuring additional artillery shells for Ukraine. However, the quantity is deemed insufficient to help Kiev overturn the enemy’s overwhelming dominance in artillery firepower on the battlefield.

Regarding air defense, the negative impact of Ukraine’s dwindling supply of missiles has become increasingly apparent in recent weeks. Throughout much of 2023, Russian long-range raids on the capital city of Kiev were largely unsuccessful. Most missiles and suicide drones launched by Moscow were intercepted by the modern air defense network provided by the West, such as the Patriot system.

The situation has drastically changed in 2024. Russian forces have successfully raided Kiev multiple times since the beginning of the year, most notably the attack that destroyed the Trypillia thermal power plant on April 11.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the enemy launched a total of 11 missiles towards the plant. The country’s air defense successfully shot down 7 projectiles, but the remaining 4 “destroyed Trypillia”.

“Why? Because we no longer have missiles to defend the plant,” Zelensky said on April 15.

The situation in cities near the frontlines of Ukraine is even more challenging. Kharkov, the capital of the province of the same name, is subjected to daily rocket attacks, UAVs, and cruise missiles from Russia, causing significant casualties and infrastructure damage. Kharkov Mayor Ihor Terekhov stated on April 17 that the city is at risk of becoming “the second Aleppo” if it is not provided with additional air defense systems.

Aleppo, once the largest city in Syria, was heavily devastated following intense clashes between government forces and rebel groups since 2011.

Experts believe that the aid the US is poised to deliver to Ukraine will certainly improve the country’s situation on the battlefield, helping it cope with Russia’s current aggressive onslaught.

However, the ground situation in the coming weeks is expected to remain relatively precarious for Kiev. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) based in the US, the volume of weapons and ammunition that Ukraine is preparing to receive will pose significant logistical challenges for the country, as Kiev currently lacks the capacity to immediately distribute such a large quantity of supplies nationwide.

Therefore, Ukrainian forces, as well as cities in the country, are still vulnerable to Russian attacks in the coming weeks. According to the ISW, Russia is aware of this and is likely to increase attacks, both aerially and on the ground, to take advantage of the time Ukraine has not yet completed the receipt of US aid.

ISW assesses that Russia may find it difficult to make major breakthroughs on the frontlines in such a short time, but significant advances are still possible. Moscow may prioritize targeting fronts where Ukrainian defense forces are unstable, such as the western area of Avdeevka, or areas where Russian forces are close to achieving important strategic objectives, such as Chasov Yar.

The US research institute also predicts that Moscow will continue to target Kiev’s energy infrastructure in the rear to distract Ukrainian frontline forces. “Russia may also shift its focus to attacking the opponent’s transportation infrastructure to limit Ukraine’s ability to allocate personnel and equipment to important fronts,” ISW assesses.

In the long run, the US research institute expects that Washington’s aid will help Ukraine maintain its frontlines and halt Russia’s impending large-scale offensive, expected in June. ISW also believes that the future battlefield situation will depend on whether Ukraine can continue to receive support from the West and Russia’s ability to mobilize resources for the war effort.

“The resumption of US security assistance to Ukraine is a significant turning point in the conflict. However, the nature and outcome of the war will be determined by the upcoming actions of the Kremlin, the West, and Ukraine,” ISW concludes.